Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-19 83211.859409 87831.916717 92450.265753 97410.031365 102582.376319 107814.027077 113502.288809
2025-01-26 76672.532926 83826.098130 91175.695009 99280.734775 107957.603549 116957.567245 126987.790991
2025-02-02 72119.127667 81062.258079 90449.689787 101016.724391 112558.490913 124760.249845 138612.888165
2025-02-09 68047.450080 78298.313695 89254.425000 101800.163861 115732.199654 130692.588635 147934.617983
2025-02-16 64121.501318 75336.254038 87515.952276 101674.441751 117626.682124 134989.735055 155261.870173
2025-02-23 61189.445251 73249.553005 86536.021132 102188.922242 120051.399424 139725.449824 162956.502324
2025-03-02 58365.875752 71099.034226 85314.575834 102269.914206 121846.534462 143642.982641 169645.134521
2025-03-09 56566.743996 70007.907509 85195.410416 103512.308464 124883.788627 148908.866434 177831.095987
2025-03-16 53938.142031 67812.162600 83676.266613 103019.275251 125820.598746 151694.556312 183117.970417
2025-03-23 52695.441762 67185.326365 83929.793431 104544.518405 129065.405977 157120.413004 191455.687588
2025-03-30 51226.170677 66210.888741 83706.124257 105447.522758 131534.554306 161617.831334 198707.041261
2025-04-06 49455.649152 64793.878593 82884.658073 105573.854435 133031.056770 164938.987054 204559.837388
2025-04-13 47590.478421 63222.157091 81851.558864 105436.088829 134224.338255 167940.040225 210107.707430
2025-04-20 46875.521094 63049.103905 82503.404673 107337.502600 137883.027412 173902.102350 219235.363239
2025-04-27 46178.864316 62862.640518 83110.801799 109165.637527 141447.847787 179764.291087 228279.504095
2025-05-04 45048.564947 62079.394020 82937.454859 109995.151603 143768.181841 184118.310149 235517.117897
2025-05-11 43531.154342 60746.045023 82026.389989 109860.334760 144863.343021 186961.730909 240914.123979
2025-05-18 42414.064399 59890.367571 81683.130550 110407.763615 146783.658032 190803.906698 247537.348812
2025-05-25 41150.721663 58800.537815 81003.059145 110493.926010 148100.340771 193889.141957 253231.156237
2025-06-01 40497.051267 58490.219454 81303.735763 111816.247836 150967.855941 198899.034344 261325.786544
2025-06-08 39083.681565 57123.526812 80196.379949 111291.512473 151463.708661 200939.181471 265726.492991
2025-06-15 38640.410397 57043.943160 80755.022593 112914.725229 154699.569847 206417.995115 274447.246113
2025-06-22 37947.156833 56601.158539 80816.579391 113875.598526 157079.538760 210826.342253 281847.162395